Discourse by a leader from the American Chemical Society, one of today's largest and most electronically seasoned learned society publishers, takes the discussion to a new level and adds specific detail of costs and economics to the conversation. Whwrhwe electronic publishing will be cheaper or more expensive than print on paper, at least in the near term, is an important underlying question.
Date: Fri, 1 Jul 1994 08:41:11 EDT
From: Stevan Harnad harnad@princeton.edu
From: lrg96@acs.org (Lorrin Garson)
Date: Wed, 29 Jun 94 15:49:33 EDT
Stevan,
Re below, by all means post to a wide list of interested parties. I'd sincerely love to discover someone/somehow to reduce journal production costs so that a majority of our expenses were printing/paper-distribution.
Regards, Lorrin
Publications Division, American Chemical Society, Washington, D.C.
E-mail: lrg96@acs.org Phone: (202) 872-4541 FAX (202) 872-4389
From: lrg96@acs.org (Lorrin Garson)
Date: Mon, 27 Jun 94 19:51:40 EDTRegarding the phrase "(which I estimate to be less than 25% of paper-page
costs, contrary to the 75% figure that appears in most current publishers'
estimates)" from your proposal below, do you mean that printing costs are
75% of the total publishing costs? If so, I can assure you this is certainly
incorrect in scientific/technical publishing. Our experience at the American
Chemical Society is that printing and paper costs are about 15% of total
manufacturing costs and the "first copy", or prepress costs are about 85% of
the total. Could you clarify what you mean? I'd be very interested on what
basis you make your financial estimates.Lorrin R. Garson
Dear Lorrin,
Yes, in fact, the data you have often presented were among the ones I had in mind when I challenged the 75% figure (though many other publishers have come up with figures similar to yours 70-85%).
I challenge it on two bases, and they are these:
(1) The calculation according to which the "per-page" savings would be only 25%, leaving 75% still to be paid for is based on how much electronic processing will save in PAPER publication. The entire superstructure is set up to hurtle headlong toward print on paper, so if you recalculate that budget and leave out the print-run and a few other things, you find you're left with 75% of the original expenses. Solution? Exorcise everything having to do with going into paper, from the bottom up. Budget an electronic-ONLY journal, and the per-page cost will come out much, much lower (if anything, my 25% is an OVER-estimate).
To put it another way: Your way of doing the figures is rather like challenging the advantages of automobiles by calculating how much they would save on horse-feed.
(2) But, if that is not enough, I also speak from experience: I edit both a paper and an electronic journal. Although the two are not entirely comparable, and the paper one undeniably still has a much larger submission rate and annual page count, the true costs of the electronic one are an order of magnitude lower even making allowances for this. And this is not because anyone is working for free, or because the Net is giving the journal a free ride (it gives -- as I delight in showing audiences in (numerical) figures -- an incomparably bigger free ride to porno-graphics, flaming, and trivial pursuit, and THAT is much riper for being put onto a trade model than esoteric scholarly publication, the flea on the tail of the dog, which I believe we would all benefit from granting a free ride on the airwaves in perpetuum).
If we charged PSYCOLOQUY's readership (now estimated at 40,000) their share of the true costs, they would have to pay 25 cents per year (down from 50 cents a couple of years ago, as the readership grew and costs actually shrank; and thanks in part also to centralized subscriber-list handling at EARN, much of it automatized, as well as to developments such as gopher and world-wide-web, which are rapidly replacing the subscriber model by the browser model altogether in electronic publication).
PSYCOLOQUY is subsidized by the APA, which is also a large psychology paper publisher. I don't know what proportion of the APA's or ACS's publications are esoteric: I am NOT speaking about publications on which the author expects to make money from the sale of the text. But for that no-market portion of the literature, re-do your figures with the endpoint being a URL file in WWW for all those published articles. Reckon only the true costs of implementing peer review, processing manuscripts (electronically), editing, copy-editing, proof-reading, etc., and then finally electronic archiving and maintenance. I predict that you will be surprised by the outcome; but this cannot be reckoned by striking a few items from the ledger based on how you do things presently.
Best wishes, Stevan
Date: Tue, 28 Jun 1994 16:28:49 +0100
From: "Paul F. Burton"
Subject: Re: Subversive Proposal
A note to thank you for the notice of your "subversive proposal", but why
be subversive about it? I've suggested at two conferences this year that
universities should take back the electronic publication of work done by
their staff (most of it research carried out with public funds), though I
have not been as direct as your proposal :-). My personal view is that
commercial publishers are running scared of electronic publishing, which is
why they seem to be involved in so many projects.It seems to me that this is an idea whose time has just arrived. Do you
think that the Follett Report proposals could include a feasibility study
of this? I'd be interested in discussing the idea further with you, if you
have time.BTW, I seem to have two addresses for you (Southampton and Princeton) so
I'm sending this to both, as I'd value your comments.
Paul, It is indeed a subversive proposal, and here's why: Many of us already share the DESIRE for electronic publication in place of paper; the question is, How to get there from here? Life is short. The subversion is in not trying to do it directly, by taking on the all-powerful paper flotilla head-on. Forget about electronic publishing. Leave the "publishing" to them. Simply archive your PREprints (on which you have not ceded copyright to anyone) in a public ftp archive. Let EVERYONE (or a critical mass) do that. And then nature will take its course. (Everyone will, quite naturally, swap the reprint for the preprint at the moment of acceptance for publication, and before paper publishers can mobilize to do anything about it, the battle will be lost, and they will be faced with an ultimatum: either re-tool NOW, so that you recover your real costs and a fair return by some means other than interposing a price-tag between [esoteric, no-market] papers and their intended readership, or others will step in and do it instead of you.)
This IS subversive. Direct appeals (whether to authors or to publishers) to "publish electronically" are not subversive; they have simply proven hopelessly slow. And at this rate (esoteric) paper publishers will be able to successfully prolong the status quo for well into the foreseeable future -- to the eternal disadvantage of learned inquiry itself, which is the one that has been suffering most from this absurd Faustian bargain for the centuries that paper was the esoteric author's only existing expedient for PUBLICation at all.
Paper publishers, by the way, are, quite understandably, looking for much less radical solutions. These compromises are mostly in the category of "hybrid" publication (paper and electronic), and they share the fatal flaw of (esoteric -- remember, I am speaking only of esoteric, non-trade, no-market) paper publication: requiring a price for admission to a show that has virtually no audience, yet is essential to us all!
I have no animus against paper publishers. It's natural for them to do whatever they can to preserve the status quo, or something close to it. But necessity is the mother of invention, and my subversive proposal would awaken their creative survival skills. And if they wish to survive (in esoteric publication -- I cannot repeat this often enough: what I am proposing is NOT applicable to literature that actually has a market, one in which the author really has hopes of selling his words, and a market is interested in buying them, for there there is no Faustian pact; it is in the interests of BOTH parties, author and publisher, to charge admission at the door -- if publishers wish to survive in ESOTERIC publication, they will have to change from a trade to a subsidy model for recovering the substantially lower true costs of electronic-ONLY publication).
My claim that the true per-page cost of electronic publication will be 25% of current per-page paper costs rather than the 75% that has been quoted over and over, has been challenged (by Lorrin Garson of the American Chemical Society) and I have attempted to support my estimate above.
We can discuss this any time (we ARE doing so right now). I'm at Princeton till end of August, then at Southampton. Both email addresses will continue to reach me.
Stevan Harnad
Date: Fri, 1 Jul 94 11:36:59 -0600
From: Paul Ginsparg 505-667-7353 ginsparg@qfwfq.lanl.gov
stevan,
some quick comments re your lorrin garson and paul burton exchange.
sh> (1) The calculation according to which the "per-page" savings would be
sh> only 25%, leaving 75% still to be paid for is based on how much
sh> electronic processing will save in PAPER publication. The entire
...
sh> To put it another way: Your way of doing the figures is rather like
sh> challenging the advantages of automobiles by calculating how much
sh> they would save on horse-feed.
thank you for making this point so explicitly. the meeting with the amer phys society is now set for mid oct, and i am more satisfied with the agenda (it seems that it is not an entirely monolithic organization, and at least some within are starting to respond to community pressure). if for any reason you have had a long-standing urge to visit santa fe and would be free that weekend, you would be more than welcome to participate at our expense (especially when it comes to issues of quality control and peer review).
sh> as the readership grew and costs actually shrank; and thanks in part
sh> also to centralized subscriber-list handling at EARN, much of it
sh> automatized, as well as to developments such as gopher and world-
sh> wide-web, which are rapidly replacing the subscriber model by
sh> the browser model altogether in electronic publication).
for the physics e-print archives, i have been observing the relative "subscriber" and "browser" model activities. (for e-mail and ftp access, i have data going back to '91; for gopher and www going back to '92 [the www url btw is http://xxx.lanl.gov/, mentioned this last jan but wasn't clear if you had client for that yet. useful as at least one model for how to organize things, with no tendency to the feared chaos, at least in the short term.] there seem to be two equally committed camps, the "subscriber" camp by far the majority (in this case subscription means receiving a daily list of new abstracts, typically 10 new abstracts per weekday on the more active archives, about half that on the average ones). i personally am in the minority browser camp, and don't really understand the subscriber mentality (who needs all the intrusive daily e-mail? in the old days we browsed journals or preprints when we felt the urge, not when they invaded our privacy...), but "subscribers" here claim that is a convenient feature of the electronic system that they get such daily reminders, and that receiving things parcelled out in daily pieces facilitates keeping up (and moreover being forced to go through them to avoid a clogged mailbox). the minority "browsers", on the other hand, instantly cancelled their subscriptions when high quality gui browsing was enabled. bottom line is: evidently there will remain both kinds, and both should be accommodated.
pb>> My personal view is that commercial publishers
pb>> are running scared of electronic publishing, which is
bingo.
pb >> It seems to me that this is an idea whose time has just arrived. Do you
pb >> think that the Follett Report proposals could include a feasibility study
pb >> of this? I'd be interested in discussing the idea further with you, if you
pb >> have time.
again you are welcome to any of the data i've collected, if interested. the net result is certain to increase dramatically the pressure on publishers of esoteric material.
From: harnad
sh> (Everyone will, quite naturally, swap the reprint for the preprint at
sh> the moment of acceptance for publication, and before paper publishers
sh> can mobilize to do anything about it, the battle will be lost, and they
sh> will be faced with an ultimatum: either re-tool NOW, so that you
sh> recover your real costs and a fair return by some means other than
sh> interposing a price-tag between [esoteric, no-market] papers and their
sh> intended readership, or others will step in and do it instead of you.)
yup, i forwarded these comments from you to the aps people so they can appreciate that the rest of the academic world shares many of our concerns, and may soon be catching up in preprint activity.
sh> I have no animus against paper publishers. It's natural for them to do
sh> whatever they can to preserve the status quo, or something close to it.
i didn't use to, one seems to be growing on me over past few years.
sh> if, as I say,
sh> publishers wish to survive in ESOTERIC publication, they will have to
sh> change from a trade to a subsidy model for recovering the substantially
sh> lower true costs of electronic-ONLY publication).
my current guess (hope?) is that the big publishing companies will ultimately drop out of the esoteric market, since the bottom line will not be so interesting to them (currently libraries spend over $10,000/year on subscriptions to single journals such as nuclear physics b -- those will be the first to go). professional societies, on the other hand, are likely to survive and still may be of use. my own professional society (aps) is coming to terms with a fait accompli, and is now ponsoring a major meeting on my home turf with what appears to be in principle a forward-looking agenda.
keep me informed on your initiative (though i too will be in europe for most of the summer, organizing a physics summer school in the french alps [les houches, near chamonix], will occasionally hunt and peck on minitel and transpose all my q's and z's)
Paul Ginsparg