The Association of Research Libraries (ARL) and the Coalition for Networked Information (CNI) are pleased to announce the publication of The ARL/CNI 2035 Scenarios: AI-Influenced Futures in the Research Environment. These scenarios explore potential futures shaped by the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) and its integration within the research environment.
Developed through a robust, member-driven process, these scenarios serve as a strategic resource to aid leaders in the research environment in navigating the complex landscape of AI technologies. Library directors, IT leaders, funding agencies, academic presidents and provosts, and those working in scholarly publishing are among the many individuals who will find these scenarios useful. By examining diverse futures, ARL and CNI aim to equip their members with the foresight needed to proactively address the challenges and opportunities that AI presents.
A core principle of scenario planning is to focus on plausibility over probability, encouraging the exploration of a broad spectrum of potential futures. As such, when using scenarios for strategic planning, users do not choose one scenario and plan toward it but focus on the set of scenarios that elevate the most critical uncertainties the scholarly ecosystem needs to address. While the future may not unfold exactly as any specific scenario describes, it is likely to contain elements from all the scenarios we envision as well as surprises we did not consider. This approach ensures that we remain flexible and prepared for a range of possible outcomes, while not trying to predict the future.
“The ARL/CNI 2035 AI Scenarios provide our members with critical insights into how AI could reshape the research environment over the next decade,” said Andrew K. Pace, ARL executive director. “We believe these scenarios will not only inspire innovative approaches to library services and infrastructure but also strengthen our community’s readiness for emerging technologies.”
Key highlights from the publication include:
- Scenario 1—Democratizing AI is a world in which AI technologies create an unprecedented integration of human and computational capabilities that flourish with increasingly open knowledge access. In this scenario, AI integrates with humans seamlessly, responsibly, and safely.
- Scenario 2—Technocratic AI is a world in which AI’s impact on the research and knowledge ecosystem is relatively low, with the primary AI advances and impact being seen in consumer applications that are readily profitable, relatively uncontroversial, and lower-barrier applications.
- Scenario 3—Divisive AI is a world of missed opportunities, bad decisions, and fecklessness. AI applications incorporating egregious bias or dysfunction were deployed, leading to misinformation validating and strengthening flawed systems that exclude many and strengthen and enrich a few.
- Scenario 4—Autonomous AI is a world in which AI is becoming an increasingly independent partner and collaborator in research and learning. Knowledge advances rapidly well beyond the research advances possible by humans. Society has knowingly and unknowingly given up increasing agency to AI.
The scenarios were developed after extensive research and input from a wide range of stakeholders, including the ARL/CNI Joint Task Force on Scenario Planning for AI & ML Futures. This publication marks a significant step forward in understanding and preparing for the future impacts of AI.
The full scenarios document is available for download from the ARL website: The ARL/CNI 2035 Scenarios: AI-Influenced Futures in the Research Environment. A more robust set of scenarios will be published at the end of May and will include a number of documents produced through the research process, including provocateur interviews, context-setting documents, and other reports. ARL also plans to host a number of events this fall to assist the research community in leveraging the scenarios for strategic planning at their organizations.
For more information or to schedule an interview, please contact: Cynthia Hudson Vitale, director, Science Policy and Scholarship, ARL, cvitale@arl.org, or Clifford Lynch, executive director, CNI, clifford@cni.org.
About ARL
The Association of Research Libraries (ARL) is a nonprofit organization of research libraries in Canada and the US whose vision is to create a trusted, equitable, and inclusive research and learning ecosystem and prepare library leaders to advance this work in strategic partnership with member libraries and other organizations worldwide. ARL’s mission is to empower and advocate for research libraries and archives to shape, influence, and implement institutional, national, and international policy. ARL develops the next generation of leaders and enables strategic cooperation among partner institutions to benefit scholarship and society. ARL is on the web at ARL.org.
About CNI
The Coalition for Networked Information (CNI) is a joint initiative of the Association of Research Libraries (ARL) and EDUCAUSE that promotes the use of information technology to advance scholarship and education. Over 200 organizations representing higher education, publishing, information technology, scholarly and professional organizations, foundations, and libraries and library organizations, make up CNI’s members. Learn more at www.cni.org.
